Failure of Leadership Portends Continued Struggles in Africa

[photo by Picture Taker]

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I recently overheard my daughters singing along to the popular Shakira song Waka Waka. It's a fun, rather addictive melody made world-famous by her stunning performance at the closing ceremonies of the 2010 FIFA World Cup in Johannesburg. The rest of the day I found myself reflexively humming the chorus "…this time for Africa."

As I repeated this phrase it got me thinking about the vast and beautifully diverse but still tragically impoverished continent of Africa and whether it may be, as some have suggested, on the cusp of a dramatic period of economic growth. In recent decades we've seen explosive growth in other regions of the world such as South America, the Far East and, most recently, in Asia.

As emerging economies become developed economies, investors inevitably begin looking for The Next Big Thing; the next idea, technological innovation or geographic region primed to experience spectacular growth. The fifty-three nations comprising the continent of Africa are collectively the world’s perennial hard luck story. Their position at the tail end of every list of human achievement is a given.

"They've been losing for so long the laws of probability practically demand they win."

Yet they are rich with natural resources and it makes sense for them to developmentally catch up with the rest of the world at some point. In fact, their current ranking of last place among inhabited continents makes even modest improvements appear dramatic, so Africa seems a likely contender for the next economic growth spurt.

At gambling tables from Monaco to Macau hordes of amateur statisticians would swear it's a mathematical certainty their luck is about to turn. And there seems to be a similar sentiment with Africa. It's as though they've been losing for so long the immutable laws of probability practically demand it's their turn to win.

Africa is a complicated place. And while questions of causality abound, I believe good leadership has to come first. Everything hinges on the ability of each country to independently create the conditions necessary for economic expansion. It will only be through the combined efforts of African leaders the continent will finally break free from its tenacious bonds. But in my view, Africa will not be the next area of economic growth because it cannot get its political house in order.

A frank assessment of foreign direct investment

I am just a novice economist but I have a particular interest in the economics of poverty and have studied the economic condition of the African continent for years. As one who loathes poverty and suffering I would be thrilled for Africans to collectively achieve a higher standard of living. To see their current condition as an inchoate world power is appealing to me on an instinctive and emotional level.

"China will be unable to continue investing because of more pressing needs within their own country."

Certainly there are hopeful signs. Chinese investment in African countries has increased as their growth forced them to seek raw materials to fuel their economic expansion and find new customers for their goods. And this investment has not decreased despite the worldwide economic downturn.

But sadly, I believe hopes of seeing Africans collectively get their economic act together are misguided and unrealistic. While Chinese investment has been increasing, it will not be the salvation of the continent in the long term. Chinese economic success will plateau in coming years as China will have to deal with political issues at home. (For more background see Ian Bremmer's comments in this Barron's interview.)

Nor can Africans count on Chinese investment to bring them out of their cultural quagmire. Not because the Chinese are uncommitted to continued investment, nor because they will no longer desperately need the resources Africa has to offer, but because China will be unable to continue such investments while addressing more pressing needs within their own country.

In every comparison of human wellbeing I can think of, the continent of Africa comes in dead last: per capita GDP, mortality and morbidity rates, educational attainment, and crime and corruption statistics. What positive data can be found is almost un-African. The few bright spots lie at the continental extremes-- those countries along the Mediterranean and in South Africa.

Are we asking the right questions?

Most anthropologists believe humans, that is Homo sapiens, originated in Africa and spread throughout the world from there. According to this view, Africans have been around longer than any other people. Africa is the cradle of mankind. Shouldn't they be more advanced then? More technologically developed or culturally superior? More socially harmonious if nothing else.

Instead we see them lagging in every indicator of advancement we can measure. What is it about the continent which seems to restrict their economic progress and social development? I have asked myself whether we're being ethnocentric in the metrics we use to measure success. It's conceivable. We're naturally inclined to believe the things we are concerned about and good at are the things everyone else should be concerned about and good at as well.

"If it's not measured, how can we get to the heart of what is successful in Africa?"

Can a case be made that Africans are achieving success in ways western researchers overlook? If there is, I haven't seen it. Knowing we're inclined to see success measured in Western terms I've tried to look at the situation with fresh eyes.

I've assumed the questions we've been asking are the wrong ones and asked what other criteria we might use to capture what is unique and special about the development of Africans. Maybe they are doing some things well. But if it's not captured in economic data, health outcomes, educational attainment, violence statistics or measures of government corruption, how can we get to the heart of what is successful in Africa?

When I look at indices such as the Human Development Index and Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index I get discouraged. Time and again the collected data show Africa as the world laggard in metrics that matter.

Why what we've been doing hasn't been working

Every time I travel to Africa I love it. I love the history and cultural diversity, I love the people and the rich combination of different landscapes. Granted, I don’t live in Africa and their success or failure as a continent will have little impact on my life, but I genuinely want them to succeed.

Wealthy and well-intentioned people want to help but they are unsure how best to provide assistance. C. K. Prahalad, whose book The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid provided direction to a generation of corporate idealists, advocated a self-sustaining capitalistic model of assistance while others, like Britain’s Tony Blair, have called for increased foreign aid.

To be sure, there are complex issues at work here. No one is certain of the casual factors. Does good governance lead to economic prosperity and human growth? Does literacy and good health increase economic drive? Does prosperity and education cause people to demand better governance and health care?

Philanthropists have grown weary of throwing money into a bottomless pit. Decades of aid appears to have done little to alleviate suffering or produce any lasting change in living conditions. The continent desperately needs commercial investment but investors dislike uncertainty and are wary of corrupt and ineffectual governments.

Likewise, aid donors don’t want to their money used to support oppressive or corrupt regimes. Investors don’t want to invest until there is sufficient infrastructure and educational development to support production. This creates a system in which potential leaders are encouraged to get their share, and their people’s share, before it’s all gone and they’re left with nothing. It is in essence a waiting game, each person hoping someone will do something to get the ball rolling in the right direction.

Africa finds itself in a conundrum of massive scale and supreme importance. What it desperately needs are national leaders who can inspire their respective countries to excel, to take the initiative and propel one of these factors forward so others will follow.

The lack of African leadership

Mo Ibrahim, the Sudanese billionaire and founder of the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, has been perennially bullish on African economic prospects. He has funded the development of the Index of African Governance, an annual assessment of progress toward good governance by African nations, and the $5 million Ibrahim Prize for African Leadership which recognizes “honest, democratic governance.”

Unfortunately, the foundation has failed to find a suitable recipient for the Ibrahim Prize in the past two years. The Mo Ibrahim Foundation is quick to point out the bar has been set intentionally high to encourage extraordinary leadership and it is not expected to be given out each year. Still, considering there are fifty-three countries and almost one billion people in Africa, the inability to find one suitable candidate says something about the state of governance on the continent.

"Do you see indications of a rapid economic expansion in Africa?"

Rachel Gisselquist, research director for the Index of African Governance and a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics, is a wealth of knowledge regarding African governance. She specializes in comparative politics with an emphasis on sub-Saharan Africa and has spent years doing research in over 25 African countries.

I recently spoke with Dr. Gisselquist about her work in Africa and her research for the Index. I was interested in what trends she had observed and, as an African expert, what her thoughts were about where the continent was headed. Her optimistic assessment of her experience was that there is a general improvement in governance throughout Africa as a whole but progress was slow and segmented.

While I understand a bit about politics and economics, I’m not well-versed in African affairs. Given her years of experience with the data I wanted to know her gut feeling about the future of Africa. "Do you see indications of a rapid economic expansion in Africa?" I asked her.

Some people do, she admitted, “but that’s not my finding. I see hopeful signs of improvement, but dramatic growth is not just around the corner.”

I echo her assessment. My apologies to Shakera, but without courageous, visionary African leaders we can dance and sing Waka Waka all day without changing the continent's future. While many people yearn for their success, it's Africans who will determine when it's "time for Africa."