Monday, April 26, 2010

Failure to Adapt: The Agonizing Death of the Publishing World


[photo by Valeriana Solaris]

I should clarify, when I say “publishing world” I mean old school publishers who rely on the outdated model of publishing described below. I’m not predicting the end of printed books just yet.

There are publishers who have adapted to modern times and operate under a new model of publisher/author collaboration. Their idea of publishing is fairly limited in scope compared to the totalitarian regimes of yesteryear.

Old school publishers on the other hand need to make some serious changes to their business model or step aside. Technology is changing and the old model doesn’t work anymore.

The old model of publishing

In the past publishers owned the bookselling process from beginning to end. Well, almost from the beginning. The authors still had to do the writing. But after that it was all publisher.

Way back when (I don’t know, before 1980), people only bought books in bookstores. The only way to get your book into a bookstore was through a publisher.

This is because the bookstores and publishers had a mutually beneficial reason to work together. The publisher needed a place to sell their books and bookstores needed something to sell. If bookstore owners didn’t give publishers the shelf space they asked for, the bookstore wouldn’t have access to that publisher’s next bestseller.

The publishers could control the book world because printing equipment was very expensive to purchase, house and operate. This meant only those with deep pockets could afford to own this equipment.

And while it was fairly inexpensive to print the books themselves, it was expensive to set up so publishers had to print a large run to make it cost effective. This led them to publish only authors they believed could sell a lot of copies.

This meant a highly selective screening process in which only the best authors were published.

Getting published was a badge of honor, an achievement worthy of praise. It meant an experienced and highly discriminating editor had been so impressed with your work he or she was willing to invest the large amount of money necessary to get it produced.

Controlling the printing process also meant they were the only place editors, proofreaders, fact checkers and other literary support staff could find employment. Publicists and marketing units specializing in literature were also beholden to the publishing houses for a job.

How things have changed

Several things have changed in the last thirty years but the most significant has been the development of low cost printing equipment with low set up costs. This is the game changer.

Lower overall equipment costs mean there are more independent printers who can produce a book. There were companies that would do this throughout history but the cost to the author was high and without the marketing and distribution support of an established publisher the author was unlikely to recoup the expense. Hence the term “vanity press.”

Not only is there more printing equipment around now but because of the low set up costs they can do very short runs cost effectively. This not only works in favor of self-publishing authors but smaller publishers as well.

As consumers have looked to the internet for bargains, bookstores began to lose their monopoly as “the place to go” for books. Booksellers were one of the first online retailers to really take off. Given the nature of books there really was no need to physically handle the product to gauge its value and shipping was easy and inexpensive.

With authors now having the ability to publish their own books and sell them through online retailers at the same price point as traditional publishers, a market was created for freelance literary professionals.

Everyone from editors and proofreaders to fact checkers and layout design specialists could find freelance jobs working directly for authors or doing piecework for small independent publishers.

Remaining advantages for traditional publishers

With two exceptions, every advantage of old school publishing is gone. Those two exceptions are prestige and access to brick and mortar booksellers.

The number of books self published by authors or by “micro-niche publishers” was over 764,000 titles in 2009 alone. Traditional publishers put out about 288,000 titles.

What does that mean? Well, for one thing it means a lot more authors are getting published. Today being a published author is no harder than being the CEO of your own company. Sure you’ve got the title, but does it mean anything.

So, for a while anyway, being published by a major publisher is still a significant accomplishment and an indicator of quality. (Even though publishers are no better at picking winners than anyone else.)

And while more and more people are shopping online there still is a lot of book-buying traffic in brick and mortar stores. For the time being, big name publishers still have that market sewn up.

Where things are going

Both of these factors will change however. As more authors turn to non-traditional publishers, either self-publishers like Lulu and Xlibris or collaborative arrangements like Greenleaf and O’Reilly, there will be more successes.

With more successful authors coming from alternative publishers the stigma of using these services will diminish and authors will feel comfortable having their names associated with these less well known services.

As shopping turns to online retailers, big name publishers’ access to brick and mortar stores will be less significant. So this advantage will also go away.

This leaves big name publishers without much to look forward to. There are ways to adapt their model however, and they do have some time. The majority of publishers’ revenue comes from their extensive catalog of past best sellers which will continue to provide revenue far into the future.

The only way big publishers can adapt though, is to recognize they no longer have the power they used to have and to reach out to authors in collaborative partnerships both parties can benefit from.


9 comments:

  1. Yes, but it somehow seems that publishers still have the cache (as you mention)and access to physical bookstores which give them quite a bit of power still. They can to a certain extent still dictate the big blockbusters. The self-publishing is so niche and micro-oriented, not sure how it overall will impact the industry. If I were to ever write a book, it would never be self-published.

    PS - I love your tag line "He fails at everything.." Thanks for being real!

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  2. Good point, about the blockbuster bestseller—they’re always coming from the big name publishers. What is often overlooked is the fact some of those titles were first published through independent publishing houses and then picked up by the big names when they began to be successful.

    Big publishers do still have the marketing clout to push a book into that blockbuster range when they find a good one.

    Looking at the long-term though, this power is diminishing and we will certainly see more big hits coming from small presses in the future.

    Thanks for stopping in and adding to the discussion.

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  3. I think there will always be big bookstores, but they will be about the blockbusters. They will be the left side of Chris Anderson's long tail. Thankfully, the methods to grow the right side of the long tail in publishing is final here.

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  4. Great point about the long tail. I was thinking more about this today.

    Big bookstores offer one thing you can’t find on the internet—immediacy. If you’re going to someone’s birthday party tonight you can’t wait for the book you ordered online to show up in the mail. Likewise, if you’re in the airport about to head on a long plane ride and want something to read, bookstores are a lifesaver.

    So there will be certain markets where bookstores will thrive, at least for a while. Ultimately we’re moving to electronic formats which will make delivery instantaneous and ubiquitous so even these advantages will go away.

    It will come down to marketing. Whoever has the best marketing campaign will be the winner. Right now that’s still the big publishing houses but is shifting toward small tribes of committed associates.

    In the end we’re all looking for the things that make us happier. The calculus for determining future happiness is difficult and we all look for shortcuts. In the past we have relied on advertisers to tell us what would make us happy but they have abused that position of trust.

    In the future people will put more trust in the recommendations of their circle of friends and less on outside marketers. This will weaken the ability of big publishers to leverage their marketing power to produce blockbusters.

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  5. True. But how do you give the gift of an ebook on Amazon? Kind of takes away from the giving part of gift giving.

    Then again, if someone owned a Kindle and I gave them a giftcard for a specific book, that'd show I really know them.

    I've got to call Jeff Bezos.

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  6. I don’t own a Kindle so I don’t know how that works, however, I am certain they’ve got that all figured out.

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  7. I think there are 2 real keys to this post, which ultimately come out in the comments section from Siddhartha:

    1. The industry will become driven by electronic formats, which eliminates print costs, shipping costs, returns costs, etc ... and probably a lot of bricks-and-mortar bookstores.

    And this will ultimately take away the primary key to the publishers' power right now, which is distribution to the market.

    2. Whoever has the best marketing wins. In some cases, publishers will figure this out. Some already have. (Chelsea Green is a great one you mention.) Mike Shatzkin thinks the most viable publisher of the future is one with a niche audience/community, which makes it easier to market.

    But what I tell writers frequently is that THEY need to be in control of how they reach their audience, if they want to ensure career success. Relying on a publisher is folly.

    I also think you're correct in believing people will put more trust in the recommendations of their friends and less on outside marketers. Imagine what happens when Facebook links up with Amazon and other e-book providers, and you can see what your social circle reads and recommends. What if there was a Facebook "like" button on each Amazon book page?

    But there is one question that remains unanswered -- and came up in a conversation today between Richard Nash and Richard Curtis during a webinar hosted by DigitalBookWorld.com:

    Who is going to validate/champion/crown the new writers coming up the ranks (when there are no ranks)? Will authors be able to achieve this by themselves? Will they be able to do it without the support/investment of some kind of tastemaker? Will writers need the financial backing of SOMEONE in order to produce great work? These are larger questions that are tough to answer when envisioning a publishing world that's completely disintermediated.

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  8. P.S. You mention book publishers owning printing presses. I believe this is/was true of newspapers, but I don't know of any book publishers that own their own equipment. It's such a low-margin business I doubt they'd ever have the money to do that! :)

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  9. Editor Friedman,

    It’s an honor to have you stop by. I very much appreciate your insight and perspective as you are one of the people I consider an authority on the publishing industry.

    Thank you also for the clarification on publishers not owning the physical printing presses. I’m not sure it changes the argument, but it’s always better to have the correct information.

    The looming question, as you say, is who will be the new kingmakers once the traditional publishers are dethroned? It’s a good question and I actually take a swing at that in a post coming out on Thursday, but I’ll give you a sneak peak: it’s Oprah Winfrey.

    Thanks again for stopping in, and for those reading the comments who like what Editor Friedman had to say, you can read more of her insights into the publishing world at her blog here.

    But as we consider the bleak future for the world of physical books, let’s not forget the valuable contributions of the humble bookseller.

    “Booksellers are the most valuable destination for the lonely, given the numbers of books that were written because authors couldn't find anyone to talk to.”
    ~Alain de Botton

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